The dream of a Group of Five team crashing the College Football Playoff seemed distant, but now, it's roaring back to life! Tulane's stunning victory over Memphis throws the entire race into exhilarating chaos. The Green Wave's resurgence isn't just a win; it's a statement: they're hungry for that coveted playoff spot.
But here's where it gets controversial... Before Tulane's triumph, Memphis held the inside track. The initial College Football Playoff Rankings surprisingly omitted all Group of Five teams, but whispers suggested Memphis would have landed around No. 12. That's a huge advantage, and now it's gone. What does this mean for the rest of the contenders? Let's break it down.
Heading into the weekend, several teams in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) boasted impressive records with only one conference loss: North Texas (8-1), Navy (7-1), USF (7-1), Tulane (7-2), and East Carolina (5-3). Navigating these tiebreaker scenarios is crucial. The AAC's tiebreaker rules prioritize College Football Playoff rankings. In essence, if one of these tied teams holds a higher ranking in the selection committee's eyes, and doesn't stumble in their remaining regular-season conference game, they automatically advance to the championship title game. It's a high-stakes game of performance and perception. And this is the part most people miss: it's not just about winning; it's about how you win, and the impression you leave on the committee.
USF's recent victory over UTSA sets the stage for a pivotal showdown. Next weekend, they face Navy in what is essentially a playoff elimination game. The stakes couldn't be higher. Meanwhile, North Texas, riding a three-game win streak, controls its own destiny. Victory in their remaining games against UAB, Rice, and Temple guarantees them a spot in the American Championship. Can they handle the pressure?
East Carolina's path is complicated by a head-to-head loss to Tulane, pushing them further down the pecking order. They face Charlotte before closing the season against Memphis, UTSA, and FAU. They need a miracle (and some help from other teams losing) to get back in the picture.
According to CBS Sports' Brad Crawford, the most probable American Championship matchup, assuming both teams win out, is North Texas versus USF. This projection hinges on the selection committee's anticipated rankings of both squads. But remember, Tulane's upset over Memphis creates a significant wrinkle in these calculations.
"I'm so proud of our guys for their resiliency," said Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, highlighting the team's ability to bounce back from adversity. "It was so cool to see how our guys responded (after last week's loss at Texas-San Antonio). Bad things are going to happen sometimes. You just have to keep showing up."
Now, let's imagine a scenario: North Texas, USF, and Tulane all end up tied for first place, assuming East Carolina falters and USF defeats Navy. In this chaotic situation, North Texas would secure one championship game berth due to their head-to-head victory over USF. The remaining spot would then be determined by the selection committee's penultimate poll on December 2, based on their rankings of USF and Tulane. This is where things get really interesting. Who will the committee favor? And how much weight will they give to head-to-head results versus overall performance?
But the American isn't the only conference vying for that Group of Five playoff bid. James Madison (JMU) and San Diego State are dark horse contenders. While the selection committee didn't provide specific data on these teams, their strong records in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively, could propel them higher than the American champion. It's a possibility that makes the race that much more intense.
JMU, with a 7-1 record and a six-game winning streak, faces Marshall this week. Their only loss came against Louisville, a team highly regarded by the selection committee. San Diego State (7-1, 4-0 in conference) is quietly dominating the Mountain West. Their remaining schedule includes Hawaii, Boise State, and New Mexico. Strong performances in these games could significantly boost their resume.
There's absolutely no guarantee that the American champion will automatically receive the Group of Five's playoff bid, especially given the impressive runs by JMU and San Diego State. The selection committee's upcoming rankings should offer greater clarity on their perceived frontrunner in this captivating race.
So, here's the burning question: Does Tulane's win truly reset the Group of Five playoff race, or are James Madison and San Diego State the real threats lurking in the shadows? And, more importantly, should the selection committee prioritize conference championships or overall strength of schedule when evaluating these teams? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
